This is the best time, the giant has never embraced virtual reality technology like this.

From Sony to Microsoft to Tencent, major game makers have embraced the technology in their own new products. Even Samsung, Google, HTC, Facebook and other large technology companies that have not entered the game market have begun to make plans.

From iQiyi to LeTV to the joint venture between 360 and Light, the video website has also begun to rush to the industry. The virtual reality video library has been scaled up, hardware production is being tested, and the live broadcast and conversion technology is becoming more mature. The short board is being patched together.

The parties in the industrial chain began to prepare for the position, and the guns on the eve of the outbreak broke out, and no company dared to take it lightly.

The threshold for entry is lowered: core technical challenges are highlighted

Virtual Reality (VR) was proposed by the American VPL company founder Jaron Lanier in the early 1980s, which comprehensively utilized computer graphics systems and various interfaces such as reality and control. A technique that provides an immersive sensation in an interactive, three-dimensional environment generated on a computer.

This was originally an industry that was slowly forgotten. In the course of more than 40 years of development, it has been repeatedly mentioned and repeatedly forgotten. Facebook's acquisition of Oculus has revived this round of enthusiasm. Virtual reality technology has recovered from the silence after the bubble burst in the 1990s, and has become the scent of many capitals, media and users.

The emergence of the Google Cardbord box solution further lowered the experience threshold of this technology: two optical lenses plus a cardboard box, the phone can be directly transformed into a VR device. Virtual reality technology seems to have become a sacred place for domestic zero-door entrepreneurship, and various VR hardware devices using glasses box solutions have sprung up.

Chen Chaoyang, the CEO of the music industry who has been in the VR industry for 9 years, told the author that when he lobbied the VR concept in 2006, he was carrying a large Intel host and carrying a mobile terminal. The display resolution is only 320 x 480, and the game will face the embarrassment of being stuck at any time.

He believes that the immature development of hardware in the past has largely hindered the rise of the VR industry. "But it's different now. With the rapid development of smart phones, the components that VR needs to enter the market on a large scale, such as low-power computing, accurate sensors, and powerful GPUs, have matured and greatly reduced. The production cost of the VR system. This time virtual reality is really breaking into reality."

The maturity of the hardware has helped reduce the entry barrier for VR, but the core technical challenges of the industry still exist.

"VR technology is a comprehensive problem. Many subdivision technologies will not be used very deeply, but they will all be involved." Jing Shubin CEO Zhang Shubin believes that entrepreneurs doing VR hardware devices are completely a process from 0 to 1: for example The lack of clarity of the screen, the sense of graininess caused by the delay of the screen, and the lack of immersion in the actual experience are all problems that VR has yet to solve. Which one is not simple, and which one may take years to complete.

And the most fundamental and most direct impact on consumers is always the user experience.

The first generation of Storm Mirror, known as the VR forerunner, was spoiled by users and had a strong sense of dizziness. After a few minutes of play, it could not persist. According to industry data disclosure, the number of VR games downloaded by Storm has been less than 10,000, and the mirror device has less than 20 minutes of online time per day. The lack of user experience in VR devices makes it difficult for consumers to wear and continue to use them.

The more serious problem is that without the user's stickiness, the construction of the VR ecosystem cannot be discussed.

As the VR ecological content party, Yang Qi, the chief architect of iQiyi, said that due to the lack of hardware development, the experience of industry users is greatly reduced, and the commercial value of VR platform is difficult to show in the short term. Although iQiyi has layout, the whole The attitude is still cautious, and the scale of the test water will be controlled within a reasonable range.

"The lack of industry standards is also a major constraint on the ecological rise of the VR platform." Dianchi, the founder of the Fireworks Workshop, said that the team that is now doing VR hardware and software is completely two-person, to achieve a balance between performance and effectiveness, One party must compromise first.

Compared with VR video content, platform migration can be realized by means of conversion technology. Dianchi believes that VR game development needs to start all over again. "Fireworks Workshop found in the development of VR game SDK, only a glasses box hardware solution has several output devices: some are Bluetooth handles, some touchpads, some are physical." This means that software developers for each Standards need to be re-customized, and development difficulty and cost are invisibly pushed up.

An analyst told the author: The industrial foundation, content base and development environment foundation that virtual reality should have now are in the process of gradual maturity, but subject to the level of hardware development, the inflection point of the outbreak may not be coming.

Is it a full rise or a false prosperity?

Although the industry is still in the early stages of immature development, there are few players in the industry who deny that VR is a strong wind. This is because in addition to the concept of supporting this round of wind, there is a natural and adventurous capital.

It is reported that at the same time that VR solutions or equipment are launched by vendors including Google, OPPO, and Storm, wading VR startups have begun to be favored by the capital market. Many companies have obtained from seed angels to A rounds, millions to thousands. Financing of tens of thousands of RMB.

The influx of capital means that R&D funds are guaranteed, which has given birth to more players to some extent.

“The market is slowly getting up.” Zhang Shubin, CEO of Lingjing, feels that the momentum of the storm has accelerated the development of the entire market to some extent. In his impression, when he chose the VR industry to start a business a year ago, there were less than 10 companies involved in VR glasses. By the end of last year, this figure had nearly doubled. "too crazy!". Nearly one hundred companies, he knows that there are currently less than 20 products, and other companies don’t know what to do.

Stormwind Technology (276.8 -10%, consulting), which is hailed as "VR evangelist" by the outside world, said that the virtual reality industry valuation will be tens of billions, and there will be giants like BAT. He believes that with the release of the fourth generation of the magic mirror at the end of the year, the domestic VR industry will have a wave of collective outbreaks.

However, just like the two sides of the coin, there may be a possibility of virtual prosperity behind the industry fire.

Previously, in the VR field, there have been cases in which investors shouted and were fooled: a company that does not yet have core technology has successfully tens of millions of dollars based on the story of "Chinese version of Oculus", and was directly named by Facebook after the product was released. Plagiarism, the company's business research and development is not very clear today.

"After this, the investment community is more cautious about investing in the VR industry," said an investment manager who declined to be named. Dianchi of the above-mentioned fireworks workshop also said that "the investment organization's enthusiasm for VR companies mainly comes from the recognition of future trends, and they are willing to invest a small amount to try, but they are more cautious in investing in large amounts of money."

The happiness of Hejun Capital clearly stated, "We will not invest in VR hardware that requires a lot of capital investment. We value whether the VR project has a long-term development of core technology." He revealed that investors have a lot of rationality this year, and now they are more enthusiastic. Betting on the periphery of the VR industry.

"At present, China's VR circle is in a direction of confusion." Dai Ruol, co-founder of Novo Eton, which focuses on motion capture systems, commented that the number of consumers in the VR industry surged from 3% to 33% last year. The way to ignore, the entrepreneurial team is inciting."

“The mixed industry situation has begun to appear, which means that it may not be far from the reshuffle period.” An industry source said that VR was originally a cutting-edge technology, but in China it became a standard, each one The company seems to be able to do the same, a plastic shell plus a lens, technically fooled, can see the panoramic video can be divided into frequency, no technical content. "This is too strange."

Feng Xin revealed that the development iteration of Storm Mirror will be based on the monthly unit, 100 days of new generation, the team will be four times in a half-year expansion. At the same time, he confidently stated that at the end of this year, some companies with unclear direction and the bottom of technology will face elimination.

"cheap" is the damage to the industry

The rhythm of VR's story in China is accelerating and evolving, so that the price war is too early to penetrate into the early stage of the industry.

The storm mirror that once relied on the virtual reality concept to successfully promote the company's listing and its stock price skyrocketing is a loyal practitioner of the rules of “low-cost grabbing users” and “single-selling models”. Compared with the high price of Samsung Gear VR, which is nearly 200 US dollars, the mirror has been insisting on the low price of 99 yuan since its release.

Some experienced people said that the user experience of the three generations of Storm has not been very good, many people reflect dizziness, the content is also a few movies and game demo, almost become a one-time consumer goods.

In terms of content, Storm has promoted 3D movies as VR concept, 360° flat view is also difficult to talk about immersion in the box's storm mirror. Some people even worry that these rough products will enter the market and hurt users' overall VR industry. Cognition, so that the future development of the industry buried the aftermath.

A veteran of the VR industry said: Compression costs are bound to bring the best experience. He believes that the cost is difficult to reduce because the VR industry is different from the mobile phone industry with mature hardware level. The latter has a large shipment and the cost can be very low. VR technology is immature in this respect, specifications and standards are also immature, and shipments are small. If it is cheap to sell, it will be difficult to maintain the company's operation.

Zhang Jingbin, CEO of Lingjing, agrees with this point of view. He said that the establishment of a market is first developed by a small number of people. The issue of cost and popularity should be considered after the pioneering.

Dianchi said that the problem of cheap VR is not cheap, but the poor experience, hurting users who are already guilty of VR. These users will not pay for better products with higher prices and better products in the future. They belong to bad money and drive out good money, and then destroy the entire industry.

According to sources, Xiaomi has been eager to try the market for cheap VR. However, after a period of consideration, it was found that the industry was too early. The "high cost performance" effect was difficult to appear in the short term, so the research and development of low-end VR was temporarily put on hold.

Compared with the superstition of the mirror on the low-price effect, foreign giants are more obsessed with technology. It is reported that Samsung's Gear VR has been established since 2011. After 11 versions of the middle, it has already made great breakthroughs in definition and low-latency technology, but in the principle of user experience first, the real consumer version. I have to wait until this fall.

Similarly, the low-priced Cardborad has not shown its ambition to be crazy about the commercial market. It also integrates both program and device roles, encouraging users to choose materials for their own assembly. Official tips should not be worn for more than 15 minutes. Cardbord is more of a promotion ambassador who has positioned himself as a virtual reality.

"Chinese people prefer to take advantage of the loopholes and take shortcuts. Relatively speaking, they are pursuing short-term benefits." Dai Ruoli feels that such a mentality of employment is difficult to cultivate VR into a healthy consumer industry.

The VR industry is still exploring

The domestic VR market that has just started will go where it is under the combined influence of these complex factors. It may not be a simple matter to see it now.

This is also the worst era. At present, there is no product in the VR field that can reach the benchmark of the industry.

Oculus is still iterating in the tough DK (developer version), Sony's Project Mopheous only hears the stairs and the legendary experience of the best Valve and HTC joint development of Vive equipment is still out of date.

The killer application that people are eager to detonate the platform ecology has not yet appeared. More than 90 domestic entrepreneurial teams are fighting each other, and the standards of interactive technology and output devices need to be unified.

It can be said that the VR industry is still far from mature and harvestable. How to "walk into" the "virtual world" is still in a state of chaos: no one knows what to do is right, capital and players Still can only explore tirelessly.

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